Thursday, December 9, 2010

futures trading: 8 trades, 6 winners

I decided to robo trade the futures today using the 2 minute MACD. My first trade was 7:50, the last was 10:05 so 2 hours. I had 8 trades, 6 winners, gross of $125, net was probably $70 -- its a $7 round trip on the futures for commission.

I have accurately predicted that this would be a down day based on the stochastic of the 2 hour futures, so that felt good. At least so far.

My rule is that I'll take a 1 point loss in hopes of a 1 point gain. Although this is a 1:1 risk the fact that its a high probability strategy makes that worth while.

I actually got scared out of my first trade, which wasn't a loser by my rule, so that would have been 7 out of 8 had I stuck to it.

Its funny, I'm done trading for the day. I want to take the win and move forward.

It really helped to have the rule and execute based on the technical analysis and be patient and let it work. Emotions will sometime be spot on and confirm the action, which provides a false sense of whether intuition helps trade or not. Sometimes it just nails it. Sometimes it is wrong, especially in the very short term.

I left a lot of money on the table. It looks like the high/low swings for the 2 minute are about 3 points, and by the time the MACD turns about half the move is done.

Looking at the 30 minute, 10 minute and 2 minute I had a lot of confidence that the moves were good, although not always, the first trade happened when it looked like things were going up and I was short, probably one of the reasons I got shaken out.

All in all, very satisfying and tiring. Its tiring to let go and let it work, but that's the way forward, detachment and letting it run.

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