Gross of $35 day trading, but very good discipline. I didn't fight the market on the SPY's, and I was patient enough to let things work. I did several other trades beside the spys and only had one loser, although only for pennies, 7 cents and 12 cents.
I was very disappointed in myself at the loss from the week before last and even last week when I was showing wrong discipline by going against the market. I felt like a fraud, like everything I've said or worked towards was a lie because I had failed to put any air in the tires.
I did good, though, I spotted a cup and handle formation and a pennant that both indicated a higher market.
Its interesting, I'm exploring how easy or hard it is to just run with the SPY's vs. doing the other kinds of trades. I'm not a fast momentum trader, almost for sure, I just have no confidence and usually the stops are very wide. The trades I picked were slow movers and felt ok.
It may be, though, that aside from a few very specific opportunities, like when the 30 minute and 10 minute are turning together, it may not be possible, meaning that I get chewed up on trading losses that more than make up for the gains.
I feel like I need to try it, though. It could be one of those things that resists being pinned down in the moment. Its so obvious in hindsight. I did make a couple of good SPY calls, I've noticed how there is a pattern of 3's in waves in the 2 minute and that a typical run is an hour so, and I caught the end of one of those.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Thursday, December 16, 2010
about even on the day, but 8 for 11 day trading
I had a pretty good morning day trading. A gross of $91, but 8 for 11 winners in the SPY, FAZ and in BAC.
I got chopped up in the futures when there was not much range and an unclear direction, so I'm probably about even on the day.
8 for 11. That is very good.
I got chopped up in the futures when there was not much range and an unclear direction, so I'm probably about even on the day.
8 for 11. That is very good.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
A choppy day
I started out the day up on the futures but lost enough on a couple of trades that I ended up down more than $100. On day trading I was down a little.
My head wasn't in the game, I kept saying I was going to work on other stuff today but kept it open and kept making trades without giving it my best.
I didn't make the transition from 'up day' to 'down day', the day turned around, and the 30 minute futures clearly showed this but I kept fighting it.
Head not in the game.
My head wasn't in the game, I kept saying I was going to work on other stuff today but kept it open and kept making trades without giving it my best.
I didn't make the transition from 'up day' to 'down day', the day turned around, and the 30 minute futures clearly showed this but I kept fighting it.
Head not in the game.
down 3.5 pounds in the last month
I went in for my weigh in/med refill this morning, I'm down 3.5 pounds in the last month. That is very solid weight loss, not too fast and steady progress.
230.75 is the new official weight. If I can keep losing weight at even 3 pounds a month I'll be at 200 by my next birthday in September. I want to keep the goals reasonable. 4 pounds a month would be awesome, 3 pounds a month is solid.
The number 200 is important because it would represent a transition in my Body Mass Index (BMI) from medically obese to just overweight. Obese is a sucky word. There are no good connotations to being obese. Its just a label, its just a word, of course, but what it stands for is real. I can't change the word but I can change the underlying reality, which is what I'm working on. At my highest weight, around 280, I was morbidly obese because I was 100 pounds overweight. Talk about a fun pair of words!
Its important to just take every pound as it comes, of course, I've noticed this three pounds, clothes have felt different, my face looks different and my body seems different.
230.75 is the new official weight. If I can keep losing weight at even 3 pounds a month I'll be at 200 by my next birthday in September. I want to keep the goals reasonable. 4 pounds a month would be awesome, 3 pounds a month is solid.
The number 200 is important because it would represent a transition in my Body Mass Index (BMI) from medically obese to just overweight. Obese is a sucky word. There are no good connotations to being obese. Its just a label, its just a word, of course, but what it stands for is real. I can't change the word but I can change the underlying reality, which is what I'm working on. At my highest weight, around 280, I was morbidly obese because I was 100 pounds overweight. Talk about a fun pair of words!
Its important to just take every pound as it comes, of course, I've noticed this three pounds, clothes have felt different, my face looks different and my body seems different.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
changes in forex trades
As part of the work on forex I've gotten away from trying to day trade forex and instead just take small stakes and swing trade them. One of the key advantages of trading a currency pair is that there is not a natural up or down. All other securities will eventually trend higher because everything becomes more expensive, and going short in anything is, well, against the long term natural way of things. Currencies only have relative value, and they move within that, so going short is something that is natural.
After I had placed all the forex trades the other day I looked at them on their dailys, and all but one were directionally placed in opposition to the daily MACD. The other day all of the ones that I had out of sync with their MACD (4 out of 5) went hard against me. The one that was with the MACD went up.
The absolute dollars in loss were small ($40) but percentage wise it was a massive move. This is a good reminder that leverage cuts both ways, and a reminder to me to keep the positions small relative to the amount I want to use for forex.
I sold the losers and today went through the currency pairs available to me and picked things that were all macd black (just to pick a direction) and I have 4 new positions. I also picked things that were other than dollar positions, like AUD/JPY. This can get me away from positions which are purely based on how the dollar does and are also not correlated so much with each other.
I'm not sure what the right number of positions is. 5? 10? I'll hold onto these and see how it goes. My strategy will be to swap in and out based on the MACD change and just swing them. I'll keep the risk as a proportion of the amount to invest so I'm not wiped out. By having a number of positions that are disparate across different currencies I hope to balance out the risk of everything going wrong at once and see what sort of aggregate return I can get and smooth out the return.
I'm up 50% on the one winner, AUD/USD, over a week or so. A position of $3000 at a risk of $60 and its up $38. This is the sort of movement that can provide a chunk of return. If I can maintain any sort of consistent aggregate return it could be very powerful. My plan is to use the house's money if I win and allow that to grow.
After I had placed all the forex trades the other day I looked at them on their dailys, and all but one were directionally placed in opposition to the daily MACD. The other day all of the ones that I had out of sync with their MACD (4 out of 5) went hard against me. The one that was with the MACD went up.
The absolute dollars in loss were small ($40) but percentage wise it was a massive move. This is a good reminder that leverage cuts both ways, and a reminder to me to keep the positions small relative to the amount I want to use for forex.
I sold the losers and today went through the currency pairs available to me and picked things that were all macd black (just to pick a direction) and I have 4 new positions. I also picked things that were other than dollar positions, like AUD/JPY. This can get me away from positions which are purely based on how the dollar does and are also not correlated so much with each other.
I'm not sure what the right number of positions is. 5? 10? I'll hold onto these and see how it goes. My strategy will be to swap in and out based on the MACD change and just swing them. I'll keep the risk as a proportion of the amount to invest so I'm not wiped out. By having a number of positions that are disparate across different currencies I hope to balance out the risk of everything going wrong at once and see what sort of aggregate return I can get and smooth out the return.
I'm up 50% on the one winner, AUD/USD, over a week or so. A position of $3000 at a risk of $60 and its up $38. This is the sort of movement that can provide a chunk of return. If I can maintain any sort of consistent aggregate return it could be very powerful. My plan is to use the house's money if I win and allow that to grow.
I lost $9 today
believe it or not I actually feel good about that, there was some serious choppiness that cost me $100 in the futures, a problem with the platform that cost me $60, and I had a fat finger mistake that cost me $40. And, I was in the market all day.
The futures issue is correctable, I didn't use use all the data I had when I entered and got chopped up on a couple of trades. However, I still ended up upon the day on the futures.
I've also learned that I can cut commissions cost by over 2/3 by switching brokers. It doesn't sound like a lot, $1 for a trade as opposed to $3.50, but I had 18 futures trades today, and that's $45 right off the top and can make the difference between an up day and a down day. To put it in perspective if I can make $200 a day I can make a living, that would have been 25% of earnings. It would have meant that today would have been an up day.
I made many, many good decisions, and the ones that didn't go well I got out of. My discipline was very good. A fat finger mistake (buying more when I meant to sell) is a form of discipline and I need to have zero of those mistakes. I had a problem with the platform in a pre-market trade and that cost me, but now I know how to execute properly.
Believe it or not this is a good day. I was in the market all day and came out at about even. I'm very happy with that.
The futures issue is correctable, I didn't use use all the data I had when I entered and got chopped up on a couple of trades. However, I still ended up upon the day on the futures.
I've also learned that I can cut commissions cost by over 2/3 by switching brokers. It doesn't sound like a lot, $1 for a trade as opposed to $3.50, but I had 18 futures trades today, and that's $45 right off the top and can make the difference between an up day and a down day. To put it in perspective if I can make $200 a day I can make a living, that would have been 25% of earnings. It would have meant that today would have been an up day.
I made many, many good decisions, and the ones that didn't go well I got out of. My discipline was very good. A fat finger mistake (buying more when I meant to sell) is a form of discipline and I need to have zero of those mistakes. I had a problem with the platform in a pre-market trade and that cost me, but now I know how to execute properly.
Believe it or not this is a good day. I was in the market all day and came out at about even. I'm very happy with that.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Check your intuition at the door
One of the things I'm coming to realize about day trading is just how little intuitions matter. In all of our other ventures we get a 'feel' for things. Trading and the markets moving defy this, especially when it comes to 'is this move done', etc.
Experience teaches, of course, and to the degree that we've internalized lessons those count as intuition, the ability to quickly know how to react and how to take steps.
However, The Big What is what happens next, and intuition will not, I believe, ever help here. Sometimes we guess correctly and sometimes we don't. I see and hear people in the room all the time talking about their gut telling them what's going to happen next, and they are frequently wrong, and I doubt that they are right more than chance. Its a big lie that we tell ourselves. I've done it a lot, and I was really, really hoping that it would be the key that unlocked the door in the same way that it unlocks so many other things in life. We eventually just lean on our intuition in so many situations in life, and in the case of the markets its worse than a mistake, its a fool's errand.
What tricks us is that the times when we are right make us feel like we are harmony with market motion, when we're really not, we just guessed right. I think this is also why we think we are being punished when we are wrong, its like we have been jilted by something that we know and are strong with and now its turned our back on us.
I have really studied the curious emotions around the way that I fear the market's reprisal, being humble, not boasting, etc. because I think deep down I don't want it to get mad at me and punish me by not whispering into my ear what the future holds. The only reason I would think such a ridiculous thing (and it is ridiculous) is because I've convinced myself that there is a relationship there when, in fact, there is not. The market is not a being, its the cumulative results of the actions of people and software. Its an outcome. Every tick is an outcome.
Again and again they say that the best traders are not emotional, and I believe that I have a glimpse into what this means: that decisions are made based on some criteria (even if its 'this looks strong' or 'this looks weak') based on experience, and then you execute and see the results.
This is an 'aha' thing for me because I wanted to be able to feel it, and I think I see that that's the wrong goal. The goal is to detach not emotion but any sense that our intuitions will be a good guide to the action.
Now, if things are going down and the technical analysis says there is further to go then its reasonable to conjecture that more will come -- that's basic trading. However, that's based on something objective -- the MACD or the stochastic or a pennant being created or whatever.
This will help, I think, I can work on the discipline of 'not feeling it'.
Experience teaches, of course, and to the degree that we've internalized lessons those count as intuition, the ability to quickly know how to react and how to take steps.
However, The Big What is what happens next, and intuition will not, I believe, ever help here. Sometimes we guess correctly and sometimes we don't. I see and hear people in the room all the time talking about their gut telling them what's going to happen next, and they are frequently wrong, and I doubt that they are right more than chance. Its a big lie that we tell ourselves. I've done it a lot, and I was really, really hoping that it would be the key that unlocked the door in the same way that it unlocks so many other things in life. We eventually just lean on our intuition in so many situations in life, and in the case of the markets its worse than a mistake, its a fool's errand.
What tricks us is that the times when we are right make us feel like we are harmony with market motion, when we're really not, we just guessed right. I think this is also why we think we are being punished when we are wrong, its like we have been jilted by something that we know and are strong with and now its turned our back on us.
I have really studied the curious emotions around the way that I fear the market's reprisal, being humble, not boasting, etc. because I think deep down I don't want it to get mad at me and punish me by not whispering into my ear what the future holds. The only reason I would think such a ridiculous thing (and it is ridiculous) is because I've convinced myself that there is a relationship there when, in fact, there is not. The market is not a being, its the cumulative results of the actions of people and software. Its an outcome. Every tick is an outcome.
Again and again they say that the best traders are not emotional, and I believe that I have a glimpse into what this means: that decisions are made based on some criteria (even if its 'this looks strong' or 'this looks weak') based on experience, and then you execute and see the results.
This is an 'aha' thing for me because I wanted to be able to feel it, and I think I see that that's the wrong goal. The goal is to detach not emotion but any sense that our intuitions will be a good guide to the action.
Now, if things are going down and the technical analysis says there is further to go then its reasonable to conjecture that more will come -- that's basic trading. However, that's based on something objective -- the MACD or the stochastic or a pennant being created or whatever.
This will help, I think, I can work on the discipline of 'not feeling it'.
4 for 5 in the futures, 9 for 12 in day trading
All for a whopping $20, which is better than a sharp stick in the eye. The killer today was a short that I got in and didn't get out of at the stop. I just kept thinking that it would turn around, and it didn't. That cost me $85. I feel pretty good about having climbed out of the hole on that to a loss of $2 for the day (gross profit of $20). One of the day trades was a loss of $5, basically a break-even. Only that one large loss and two smaller ones.
I did an after hours futures trade that nicked me because I set a stop and it tested it. Stops are part of the trade but the after hours action didn't require a hard stop so close to the action, an emergency parachute a point down from that would have been fine. That cost me 3/4 of a point and a round trip of commissions.
So basically, a good day except for two mistakes, and I came out ahead after commissions. I made a lot of good trades today.
I've started to increase the share amount on selective trades to more than 100 shares, up to 200 or 300, that is going to be crucial for making actual money on this instead of paying tuition and 'building confidence'. I was taken to task today by the head of the trading room for not getting more on a trade, and he was right. I got a point on a futures trade that had several, and I knew it was possible at the time. At least I didn't take a half point when it was there, that is progress for me.
I guess it was all those days of losing $200-$400 and having every trade seemingly fall apart that made me so gun shy, but I've got to enter the trades with confidence and I have to get wins to build up confidence. I am getting there, its real and I'm doing it, I'm making futures trades that work because I wait for the setup. Even setting aside the one slip-up with the stop I would only be doing a 1/4 point as I write this and the trade still would not have failed. It would not have been moving the way I would have wanted, things are kind of languishing, but I would not have made a bad trade.
I did an after hours futures trade that nicked me because I set a stop and it tested it. Stops are part of the trade but the after hours action didn't require a hard stop so close to the action, an emergency parachute a point down from that would have been fine. That cost me 3/4 of a point and a round trip of commissions.
So basically, a good day except for two mistakes, and I came out ahead after commissions. I made a lot of good trades today.
I've started to increase the share amount on selective trades to more than 100 shares, up to 200 or 300, that is going to be crucial for making actual money on this instead of paying tuition and 'building confidence'. I was taken to task today by the head of the trading room for not getting more on a trade, and he was right. I got a point on a futures trade that had several, and I knew it was possible at the time. At least I didn't take a half point when it was there, that is progress for me.
I guess it was all those days of losing $200-$400 and having every trade seemingly fall apart that made me so gun shy, but I've got to enter the trades with confidence and I have to get wins to build up confidence. I am getting there, its real and I'm doing it, I'm making futures trades that work because I wait for the setup. Even setting aside the one slip-up with the stop I would only be doing a 1/4 point as I write this and the trade still would not have failed. It would not have been moving the way I would have wanted, things are kind of languishing, but I would not have made a bad trade.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
a little Sunday night trading
I did 2 trades and got a point and a half in the futures this evening for $75, one long and one short, a nice way to start the week. I took a good risk at the right time and it worked out. The setup is now based on 2,10 and 30 minute setups. I also look at the 2 hour setup but not as often.
The main lesson on Friday was how important it is to note how much movement there is. While volatility itself is measured its not intraday. Friday there just wasn't much movement, which mean that 2 minute trading didn't work well.
I'm also really starting to notice the interplay between the different time frames and how the action of the higher time frame can guide action in the lower time frame, especially when the slope of the stochastic in the higher frame is steep. The lower time frame will look like it is making a transition and trigger a buy or sell signal and then suddenly reverse. Looking at the higher time frame reveals that it is on a steep slope, as if it were 'pushing' down on the lower time frame. Gaming this is key, because there are many times that a transition on the MACD fails. This can be very mysterious, but makes more sense when you watch the higher time frame.
One mental thing I'm working really hard on is the discipline of not getting ahead of where I am. I've realized that the key is simple: gratitude. I am grateful for the progress that I've made. I'm grateful that I'm getting real insight as to the (very short term) behavior of the market in action and I am grateful that I can take advantage of this in a way that lets me make money.
I'm making real progress. If this is like everything else I've ever done then its something that I'll get better at by just doing it more and more. What an amazing concept!
The main lesson on Friday was how important it is to note how much movement there is. While volatility itself is measured its not intraday. Friday there just wasn't much movement, which mean that 2 minute trading didn't work well.
I'm also really starting to notice the interplay between the different time frames and how the action of the higher time frame can guide action in the lower time frame, especially when the slope of the stochastic in the higher frame is steep. The lower time frame will look like it is making a transition and trigger a buy or sell signal and then suddenly reverse. Looking at the higher time frame reveals that it is on a steep slope, as if it were 'pushing' down on the lower time frame. Gaming this is key, because there are many times that a transition on the MACD fails. This can be very mysterious, but makes more sense when you watch the higher time frame.
One mental thing I'm working really hard on is the discipline of not getting ahead of where I am. I've realized that the key is simple: gratitude. I am grateful for the progress that I've made. I'm grateful that I'm getting real insight as to the (very short term) behavior of the market in action and I am grateful that I can take advantage of this in a way that lets me make money.
I'm making real progress. If this is like everything else I've ever done then its something that I'll get better at by just doing it more and more. What an amazing concept!
Friday, December 10, 2010
almost $200 gross day trading stocks
I had a good day day trading stocks. There was not a lot of range in the S&P today, maybe 4 points, so on a day like that trying to do futures through 2 minute MACD fails, there are too many chops back and forth. On days like that, though, individual stocks have a chance to do well if they are stronger or weaker, they stand out more and there isn't so much 'tidal force' of the market pulling you around.
I also made a decision to pick stocks that I would be willing to hold and swing intentionally if they went against me. That protected me from dealing with something going wrong. I looked at the daily chart and only bought things that I thought I would want to hold onto.
I lost $25 on 2 futures trades, first one went against me and I held the second one for a couple of hours before it finally came around. The thing about a choppy day with a small range is that you can actually afford to be patient and not try to game tops or bottoms or play the 2 minute as I've described. If I had held onto the second one I would have had a profit for the day but when I've been down a while I feel a lot of relief to just get out. Still, I did well because I did hang on, saw that the market wasn't moving and I could be patient, and watched the interplay between the 10 minute and the 30 minute technicals produced a positive move from a negative start. I had said early on I was leaning long but long was wrong the first hour of the day.
A gross of 168, before commissions. I'm very happy with that number, getting 3 figures is very, very solid.
I'm also encouraged that there is a place for day trading stocks, I don't want to day trade when the market is moving, too much risk of being whipsawed by the market, but on a small range day its a different story.
this is how it develops, see the condition and respond to it. different techniques and instruments for different conditions.
feels good!
I also made a decision to pick stocks that I would be willing to hold and swing intentionally if they went against me. That protected me from dealing with something going wrong. I looked at the daily chart and only bought things that I thought I would want to hold onto.
I lost $25 on 2 futures trades, first one went against me and I held the second one for a couple of hours before it finally came around. The thing about a choppy day with a small range is that you can actually afford to be patient and not try to game tops or bottoms or play the 2 minute as I've described. If I had held onto the second one I would have had a profit for the day but when I've been down a while I feel a lot of relief to just get out. Still, I did well because I did hang on, saw that the market wasn't moving and I could be patient, and watched the interplay between the 10 minute and the 30 minute technicals produced a positive move from a negative start. I had said early on I was leaning long but long was wrong the first hour of the day.
A gross of 168, before commissions. I'm very happy with that number, getting 3 figures is very, very solid.
I'm also encouraged that there is a place for day trading stocks, I don't want to day trade when the market is moving, too much risk of being whipsawed by the market, but on a small range day its a different story.
this is how it develops, see the condition and respond to it. different techniques and instruments for different conditions.
feels good!
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Thinking of day trading via the 10 minute
I've struggled with trying to trade the SPYs based on the 2 minute MACD, its just easy to be have a winner that's a nickel, then a loser that's 12 cents.
I think what I'm going to start trying is to trade daily using the 10 minute MACD on the SPY's. This is easier to leave alone. I did one trade today with it and did well. I've got to try to find a way to put that day trading money to work, else I need to move it. I like the idea of the components of day trading to the overall picture, and I think it can complement trading futures, perhaps be less intense in terms of focus.
I think what I'm going to start trying is to trade daily using the 10 minute MACD on the SPY's. This is easier to leave alone. I did one trade today with it and did well. I've got to try to find a way to put that day trading money to work, else I need to move it. I like the idea of the components of day trading to the overall picture, and I think it can complement trading futures, perhaps be less intense in terms of focus.
A perfect pennant
There are some powerful chart patterns that happen fairly often. One of the classics is the pennant formation, where prices compress to a point and then bounce. Today in the SP there was beautiful pennant. I've attached a graphic here which shows the pennant at the time it formed and then shows what happened. Usually a pennant results in a move up.
What I know now, based on the kind of technical analysis that I do, is that this pattern is the above ground representation of a change in momentum on several scales at once.
Stock prices are fractal, I believe. This is the reason that technical analysis works at different time scales. There are rhythms at every level of detail you want to look at. Something can be a 'buy' based on a daily scale and a 'sell' based on an hourly scale and a 'buy' based on a 10 minute scale. The central theme to my technique is to monitor the multiple levels of detail and focus on trades where things are aligned.
What I know now, based on the kind of technical analysis that I do, is that this pattern is the above ground representation of a change in momentum on several scales at once.
Stock prices are fractal, I believe. This is the reason that technical analysis works at different time scales. There are rhythms at every level of detail you want to look at. Something can be a 'buy' based on a daily scale and a 'sell' based on an hourly scale and a 'buy' based on a 10 minute scale. The central theme to my technique is to monitor the multiple levels of detail and focus on trades where things are aligned.
futures trading: 8 trades, 6 winners
I decided to robo trade the futures today using the 2 minute MACD. My first trade was 7:50, the last was 10:05 so 2 hours. I had 8 trades, 6 winners, gross of $125, net was probably $70 -- its a $7 round trip on the futures for commission.
I have accurately predicted that this would be a down day based on the stochastic of the 2 hour futures, so that felt good. At least so far.
My rule is that I'll take a 1 point loss in hopes of a 1 point gain. Although this is a 1:1 risk the fact that its a high probability strategy makes that worth while.
I actually got scared out of my first trade, which wasn't a loser by my rule, so that would have been 7 out of 8 had I stuck to it.
Its funny, I'm done trading for the day. I want to take the win and move forward.
It really helped to have the rule and execute based on the technical analysis and be patient and let it work. Emotions will sometime be spot on and confirm the action, which provides a false sense of whether intuition helps trade or not. Sometimes it just nails it. Sometimes it is wrong, especially in the very short term.
I left a lot of money on the table. It looks like the high/low swings for the 2 minute are about 3 points, and by the time the MACD turns about half the move is done.
Looking at the 30 minute, 10 minute and 2 minute I had a lot of confidence that the moves were good, although not always, the first trade happened when it looked like things were going up and I was short, probably one of the reasons I got shaken out.
All in all, very satisfying and tiring. Its tiring to let go and let it work, but that's the way forward, detachment and letting it run.
I have accurately predicted that this would be a down day based on the stochastic of the 2 hour futures, so that felt good. At least so far.
My rule is that I'll take a 1 point loss in hopes of a 1 point gain. Although this is a 1:1 risk the fact that its a high probability strategy makes that worth while.
I actually got scared out of my first trade, which wasn't a loser by my rule, so that would have been 7 out of 8 had I stuck to it.
Its funny, I'm done trading for the day. I want to take the win and move forward.
It really helped to have the rule and execute based on the technical analysis and be patient and let it work. Emotions will sometime be spot on and confirm the action, which provides a false sense of whether intuition helps trade or not. Sometimes it just nails it. Sometimes it is wrong, especially in the very short term.
I left a lot of money on the table. It looks like the high/low swings for the 2 minute are about 3 points, and by the time the MACD turns about half the move is done.
Looking at the 30 minute, 10 minute and 2 minute I had a lot of confidence that the moves were good, although not always, the first trade happened when it looked like things were going up and I was short, probably one of the reasons I got shaken out.
All in all, very satisfying and tiring. Its tiring to let go and let it work, but that's the way forward, detachment and letting it run.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
$50 in the futures
I did two futures trades after hours, one long (winner), one short (loser), and made $50 gross.
I decided to take a look at the entire day for the futures at 2 minute intervals for today and counted the opportunities when the MACD was red and was black.
Starting at 7 am there were 17 transitions, red to black and black to red. Of those 13 offered at least a 1 point gain. That would be 13 winners and 4 losers, a 3:1 ratio, or a 75% success probability. The losers varied in terms of what happened, but its safe to call them 1 point losses. Some might have been break-even.
If I overlay the 10 minute chart and count trades that were in the same direction at the time that the 2 minute line made the transition as the 10 minute MACD line there were 7 trades, all long in this case, and it looks like they were all good except 1, and that went up but didn't go up a point.
So, 9 winners vs 5 winners, the question would be how bad the cuts would be on the losers.
Even during times when there is clear uptrend or downtrend on the 10 minute there are opportunities in the 2 minute. Going along with the 10 minute trend would provide more movement, it would seem.
Of course, there was good range today. If this was a relatively narrow range day it would have been a chopfest.
I decided to take a look at the entire day for the futures at 2 minute intervals for today and counted the opportunities when the MACD was red and was black.
Starting at 7 am there were 17 transitions, red to black and black to red. Of those 13 offered at least a 1 point gain. That would be 13 winners and 4 losers, a 3:1 ratio, or a 75% success probability. The losers varied in terms of what happened, but its safe to call them 1 point losses. Some might have been break-even.
If I overlay the 10 minute chart and count trades that were in the same direction at the time that the 2 minute line made the transition as the 10 minute MACD line there were 7 trades, all long in this case, and it looks like they were all good except 1, and that went up but didn't go up a point.
So, 9 winners vs 5 winners, the question would be how bad the cuts would be on the losers.
Even during times when there is clear uptrend or downtrend on the 10 minute there are opportunities in the 2 minute. Going along with the 10 minute trend would provide more movement, it would seem.
Of course, there was good range today. If this was a relatively narrow range day it would have been a chopfest.
up $30 swing trading forex after a couple of days.
I think I've figured out that swing trading forex is the way to go for me, using daily charts just like they were stocks.
intraday trading takes too large a movement to make a difference, and this way I can have multiple positions. Right now I'm long the Canadian Dollar, Swiss franc and the Yen and short the Euro and the Australian Dollar. You also have to give currency very wide stops, it can swing 50 pips on you just to move in a short term trading range.
Fortunately, I learned that you can trade very tiny amounts of currency -- $1000 worth at a time at a trade cost of $20 (50 to 1 leverage). I'm trading $2,000 chunks at this point, which make for $20 per 100 pip move at a trade cost of $40 per trade. I have 5 positions, so that's $200 in capital. Compare that to thousands on a stock for the same kind of movement! A currency might move several hundred pips in a week, so this is enough to call it a real trade without having to allocate too much to it. If 4 of the 5 trades moved 100 pips in a week that could be $60 profit, or 30% return on capital. If 3 out of 5 are winners that's $20, or 10% of capital.
As with day trading this is something that is easy to scale. I've got $3,000 set aside for this because I thought I would be buying $100,000 at a time (for a cost of $2,000) but I have $200 at risk right now. If this is a winner I'll play with the houses money, scaling up and down based on the amount that I profit or lose.
This feels settled, I like that. I'm attracted to currencies because you can get in with a small dollar amount and still get a profit and they don't correlate to the S&P, although right now the Euro is driving a lot, but generally speaking they move on their own. That means I'm not 100% correlated in one direction and can have a mixture of longs and shorts.
intraday trading takes too large a movement to make a difference, and this way I can have multiple positions. Right now I'm long the Canadian Dollar, Swiss franc and the Yen and short the Euro and the Australian Dollar. You also have to give currency very wide stops, it can swing 50 pips on you just to move in a short term trading range.
Fortunately, I learned that you can trade very tiny amounts of currency -- $1000 worth at a time at a trade cost of $20 (50 to 1 leverage). I'm trading $2,000 chunks at this point, which make for $20 per 100 pip move at a trade cost of $40 per trade. I have 5 positions, so that's $200 in capital. Compare that to thousands on a stock for the same kind of movement! A currency might move several hundred pips in a week, so this is enough to call it a real trade without having to allocate too much to it. If 4 of the 5 trades moved 100 pips in a week that could be $60 profit, or 30% return on capital. If 3 out of 5 are winners that's $20, or 10% of capital.
As with day trading this is something that is easy to scale. I've got $3,000 set aside for this because I thought I would be buying $100,000 at a time (for a cost of $2,000) but I have $200 at risk right now. If this is a winner I'll play with the houses money, scaling up and down based on the amount that I profit or lose.
This feels settled, I like that. I'm attracted to currencies because you can get in with a small dollar amount and still get a profit and they don't correlate to the S&P, although right now the Euro is driving a lot, but generally speaking they move on their own. That means I'm not 100% correlated in one direction and can have a mixture of longs and shorts.
$35 gross day trading today
I'm still having these enormous doubts and confidence issues day trading but still managed a $35 gross today after being down $35. I was down $35 because I was trading against the 10 minute trend trying to pick the bottom. The 2 minute was giving a buy signal on the stochastic, which is a shorter term and more volatile signal, but the 2 minute MACD had yet to turn. I need to respect the rule that if I'm trading against the 10 minute trend I wait for the MACD to turn to confirm, or at least wait for a higher high, or just sit on the sidelines.
I don't have to trade with the trend but I can't fight it without additional arguments. This means that I will lose opportunities, the more rules the fewer conditions that will be correct, but also fewer losses.
I'm going to have to do some work on this block. I don't feel it for swing trading but there is an intraday block that keeps me fearful even amidst clear successes.
I don't have to trade with the trend but I can't fight it without additional arguments. This means that I will lose opportunities, the more rules the fewer conditions that will be correct, but also fewer losses.
I'm going to have to do some work on this block. I don't feel it for swing trading but there is an intraday block that keeps me fearful even amidst clear successes.
230 on the scale and 122 sugars
I got a 230 reading on the scale this morning and my sugars were 122 this morning. The former is a milestone and the latter is a very solid reading, the upper range of normal. Both are a reason to feel great about progress.
The next weight milestone is 225, which was my 'golf weight', I weighed 225 for the longest time when I played golf regularly, I can remember that number. I've lost 12 pounds since starting the new meds and the change has been noticeable. The next 10 pounds should really be noticeable as well, as a whole new set of shirts will fit. I will probably be ready to donate the existing large shirts I have to Goodwill, and that's an important step in letting go and setting a stake in the ground.
The next weight milestone is 225, which was my 'golf weight', I weighed 225 for the longest time when I played golf regularly, I can remember that number. I've lost 12 pounds since starting the new meds and the change has been noticeable. The next 10 pounds should really be noticeable as well, as a whole new set of shirts will fit. I will probably be ready to donate the existing large shirts I have to Goodwill, and that's an important step in letting go and setting a stake in the ground.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
I have clown pants now
I've got a couple of XXL pants from Territory Ahead (my favorite clothier) which were the only ones that would fit me when I was much larger, 40 pounds north of here. My XL version was in the wash when I wanted to take a walk today so I put some on, and they are wonderfully huge. My friend that I walk with called them "clown pants", and they are now.
I would never wear them now out to something other than to the park for a walk. Its important that I wear clothes that fit. If I wear things that are too large I get a false sense of progress. Its easy to tell you've lost weight if fat clothes are hanging off you. While I do have a new test shirt that won't fit until I lose more, I don't want to wear clothes that are too tight either. Just clothes that fit. They will naturally display a slimmer me.
I'm not getting the big head here. I have to lose 30 pounds before I'm not medically obese. Still, progress is progress.
I would never wear them now out to something other than to the park for a walk. Its important that I wear clothes that fit. If I wear things that are too large I get a false sense of progress. Its easy to tell you've lost weight if fat clothes are hanging off you. While I do have a new test shirt that won't fit until I lose more, I don't want to wear clothes that are too tight either. Just clothes that fit. They will naturally display a slimmer me.
I'm not getting the big head here. I have to lose 30 pounds before I'm not medically obese. Still, progress is progress.
3 for 3 in the futures today
Its odd, but I've had this confidence problem this week. I think it was from having so much confidence on Friday that I spent the weekend feeling good about where I was.
Everyone who has traded for any length of time knows the feeling of getting slapped down by the markets. It feels personal, even though its not. It feels like the markets are making sure you understand who your daddy is, and you must never, ever assume that you can do better than it.
After all, if that were possible then you could make vast amounts of money for simply clicking 'buy' or 'sell' and there is a part of all of us that thinks that that can't possibly be too true -- its too good to be true.
This is real deep stuff, and its probably why there are psychologists who specialize in talking to traders.
I find myself saying to myself "the market doesn't know where you bought or sold and isn't keeping a P&L for you".
I found a setup that's working well. I've added the 30 minute to have another layer of direction. So, I'm using 2,10 and 30 minute charts with stochastics and MACD. I'm 3 for 3 today. 3 times I entered the market and 3 times I came out with profit. Today I was a good boy and didn't stray from my setups. My gross is $87 for the day. I lost about $25 day trading the SPYs. I think that has potential but I have to be persistent.
I guess I'm trying to find the mental handle that will let me say 'I can spot a setup which has a high probability of working' without becoming arrogant about it. Part of me wants to scream at the market "HA! FUCK YOU! I CAN BEAT YOU!! I CAN FUCKING WIN!!!" but I'm scared that it will hear me and it will stop working. Isn't that strange?
Everyone who has traded for any length of time knows the feeling of getting slapped down by the markets. It feels personal, even though its not. It feels like the markets are making sure you understand who your daddy is, and you must never, ever assume that you can do better than it.
After all, if that were possible then you could make vast amounts of money for simply clicking 'buy' or 'sell' and there is a part of all of us that thinks that that can't possibly be too true -- its too good to be true.
This is real deep stuff, and its probably why there are psychologists who specialize in talking to traders.
I find myself saying to myself "the market doesn't know where you bought or sold and isn't keeping a P&L for you".
I found a setup that's working well. I've added the 30 minute to have another layer of direction. So, I'm using 2,10 and 30 minute charts with stochastics and MACD. I'm 3 for 3 today. 3 times I entered the market and 3 times I came out with profit. Today I was a good boy and didn't stray from my setups. My gross is $87 for the day. I lost about $25 day trading the SPYs. I think that has potential but I have to be persistent.
I guess I'm trying to find the mental handle that will let me say 'I can spot a setup which has a high probability of working' without becoming arrogant about it. Part of me wants to scream at the market "HA! FUCK YOU! I CAN BEAT YOU!! I CAN FUCKING WIN!!!" but I'm scared that it will hear me and it will stop working. Isn't that strange?
Monday, December 6, 2010
5 for 7 in the futures
Although its really something of a trendless chopfest today I got 5 for 7 on the futures with a gross of $25. Flat on day trading, with two trades, one loser and one winner. I was actually up $112 and had quit for the day when I got smart and lost 1.25 on a trade that was not based on my setup. Because I'm so effing smart. Then I did a revenge trade and lost another .5 point on that. I ended the day up .25 on a trade, so at least the day ended on a positive note. After commissions I'm down for the day $25 or so. Idiot. Idiot. Idiot.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
$25 in futures, a few bucks in forex
I've been doing some Sunday night trading. I had 3 for 4 wins in the futures for a $25 profit and two forex trades for about $4. I think I'll end up with a small loss on the futures since there is a $7 round trip charge. I was up $65 before my final trade, which was a loser and I didn't feel totally confident of. However, good decisions and effective patience for good setups.
I wore The Shirt today
My test shirt fits. I had just tried it a few days ago and it wasn't fitting yet, but this morning it met my criteria, when I sat down it fit around my midsection. Its nice because its smaller than my other shirts even though its an "XXL" -- it wasn't sized well.
Today was literally the first time I've ever worn it, from the day I purchased it it didn't fit. Its very satisfying that I can add that to my wardrobe. I have a couple of other shirts from that time that I'll check on as well.
Its a big milestone.
Today was literally the first time I've ever worn it, from the day I purchased it it didn't fit. Its very satisfying that I can add that to my wardrobe. I have a couple of other shirts from that time that I'll check on as well.
Its a big milestone.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
I think I'm down another pound
Its hard to say because of the crankiness of my scale, but it showed around 132 or so. I've seen my reflection and noticed that it seems more linear and less pear like, but there aren't any hard signs of progress. Slow is good, though. No complaints.
I have a shirt that is the next size down that I put on every few days to see when it fits properly. Its very close but its not there. That will be a visible milestone.
Yesterday I went on a long walk and didn't have to cinch up my pants, which I had to do a couple of weeks ago, so that was almost a counter indicator. I'm certainly not gaining weight. I'm eating a little more but my appetite hasn't returned as before. I'm sleeping much better, fewer nights where I lay awake, although I had a spell last night. I'm also not as feeling as much of the stimulant quality from it.
This is how it should be really, just taking it a day at a time and slowly but surely making progress.
I did a check of my BMI today and it looks like I'll be in the 'obese' range until I get to around 200 pounds, which would then qualify me as simply 'overweight'. 200 pounds looks awfully good from this perch. It was the lowest I got to when I was doing Fen/Phen, I remember seeing the reading, and I stopped shortly after that and promptly put it all back on.
Morning sugar readings are 130/140 etc. Blood sugar is well controlled.
I have a shirt that is the next size down that I put on every few days to see when it fits properly. Its very close but its not there. That will be a visible milestone.
Yesterday I went on a long walk and didn't have to cinch up my pants, which I had to do a couple of weeks ago, so that was almost a counter indicator. I'm certainly not gaining weight. I'm eating a little more but my appetite hasn't returned as before. I'm sleeping much better, fewer nights where I lay awake, although I had a spell last night. I'm also not as feeling as much of the stimulant quality from it.
This is how it should be really, just taking it a day at a time and slowly but surely making progress.
I did a check of my BMI today and it looks like I'll be in the 'obese' range until I get to around 200 pounds, which would then qualify me as simply 'overweight'. 200 pounds looks awfully good from this perch. It was the lowest I got to when I was doing Fen/Phen, I remember seeing the reading, and I stopped shortly after that and promptly put it all back on.
Morning sugar readings are 130/140 etc. Blood sugar is well controlled.
Friday, December 3, 2010
I think I've turned the corner
This morning I woke up and was confident that I'd do well in the markets today. I believed that I would make money today, but more importantly I knew that I would be able to spot the opportunities and execute them, and I was sure that I had the discipline to get out.
Day trading: 8 trades, 6 winners, $30 gross
Forex: 2 trades, 2 winners, $26 or so
Futures: 1 trade, 1 winner, $25
Gross for the day:$80 or so.
I even traded a regular stock today in addition to the SPY: BBY, which I got 6 cents in. I watched it for a while before getting in, and had confidence in the trade.
The 2 minute/10 minute setup is my strategy, at least for now. I don't need to stray from it but instead grow deeper into it and gradually increase my size within that.
Something has clicked. I've strayed from the straight and narrow and paid, time and again. There is this tiny little circle where things work well for me, and if I venture outside that circle I get hacked by spinning blades. My discipline is getting better, I get tempted to try variations but am getting better at doing those as a paper trade, just to see.
It would be great to have a basket of setups and have a sense of the percentage of winners. I would love to know what sort of setups to use on hourly or daily forex or futures, there are such huge numbers there. However, scalping for pennies and a few pips and a point or less is working, and that is a foundation on which to build something.
I think I can do this. I have done it. I am doing it. This is really, really great.
Day trading: 8 trades, 6 winners, $30 gross
Forex: 2 trades, 2 winners, $26 or so
Futures: 1 trade, 1 winner, $25
Gross for the day:$80 or so.
I even traded a regular stock today in addition to the SPY: BBY, which I got 6 cents in. I watched it for a while before getting in, and had confidence in the trade.
The 2 minute/10 minute setup is my strategy, at least for now. I don't need to stray from it but instead grow deeper into it and gradually increase my size within that.
Something has clicked. I've strayed from the straight and narrow and paid, time and again. There is this tiny little circle where things work well for me, and if I venture outside that circle I get hacked by spinning blades. My discipline is getting better, I get tempted to try variations but am getting better at doing those as a paper trade, just to see.
It would be great to have a basket of setups and have a sense of the percentage of winners. I would love to know what sort of setups to use on hourly or daily forex or futures, there are such huge numbers there. However, scalping for pennies and a few pips and a point or less is working, and that is a foundation on which to build something.
I think I can do this. I have done it. I am doing it. This is really, really great.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
up $200 today after a disasterous day yesterday
My 22 point loss in the futures yesterday was a huge blow, and it wasn't the first time I've been blown out like that. I have this mental picture that I can trade the futures like I swing trade, where the intraday moves aren't important, but the raw numbers are just too large. Being down $1200 in a day is too much, especially when it looks like a correction may have ended. I had two other trades yesterday that were losers, another futures trade (which fortunately I stopped out on) and a currency trade that I got stopped on.
Today I've had 1 day trade, 1 futures trade and 2 currency trades that were winners, for a total of about $200 in profit.
Its so intoxicating to have a few winners and then start thinking bigger. And this isn't unwarranted, I just need to think bigger within the box by letting the existing trades run longer. The future trade I made this morning was good for a point, and its run 12 points since then, or half of my loss from yesterday. And yet, once I'm up a little I grab it. Confidence needs to turn into letting a winner run, not trying a different strategy, which was to go short a future and think I'll just check in on it in a few days.
I seem to have a winner with the 2 minute/10 minute setup, I need to stick with that and let them run, or at least see how well I can do over a longer term.
Today I've had 1 day trade, 1 futures trade and 2 currency trades that were winners, for a total of about $200 in profit.
Its so intoxicating to have a few winners and then start thinking bigger. And this isn't unwarranted, I just need to think bigger within the box by letting the existing trades run longer. The future trade I made this morning was good for a point, and its run 12 points since then, or half of my loss from yesterday. And yet, once I'm up a little I grab it. Confidence needs to turn into letting a winner run, not trying a different strategy, which was to go short a future and think I'll just check in on it in a few days.
I seem to have a winner with the 2 minute/10 minute setup, I need to stick with that and let them run, or at least see how well I can do over a longer term.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
back in the saddle
This game is about persistence. I just shorted a mini near 1204 close to the top of the range, with a hard stop at 1207.25, which was the high. This is a strategy. Simply buying or selling and waiting for it to work out isn't a strategy. I say that over and over to myself and hopefully its sinking in.
I also got back into the EUR at a higher place to short, and I got ahead enough to put a stop on entry, so I can't lose on the trade.
I also got back into the EUR at a higher place to short, and I got ahead enough to put a stop on entry, so I can't lose on the trade.
out for a 24 point loss
I couldn't take the pain, the Euro started shooting up and the futures started making new highs. This could be the end of the correction.
My euro short also stopped out, for no loss fortunately
The only consolation is that realization that the moves are there. I was just on the wrong side of it this time.
My euro short also stopped out, for no loss fortunately
The only consolation is that realization that the moves are there. I was just on the wrong side of it this time.
taking a beating on the futures today
I went short a mini at 1177 overnight believing that it would take out the most recent low. Now I'm down 23 points in it as it has roared on the 1st of the month.
I had several opportunities to get out but I've consistently seen that every position I've had in the futures ended up being a winner if I was patient. It might take several days but so far its been consistent, and this is sort of the test for that.
Scalping for a half point and all is great, but I see the bigger moves and want to be able to take advantage of them, and they require that I get comfortable with something that moves against me for a while. There is a lot of pain right now ($1000 down) but the futures have had a huge move in a short time and it will have to correct -- it always has.
What I'm going through internally is when do I thrown in the towel and say I missed it. I went short at the wrong time and the charts showed me that but I didn't use that as an entry rule. I have also gone short at the top of a move only to see it go another 20 points higher, after the elections, but at least in that case I was in the right position.
The bad part about holding this position is that I'm locked out of futures trading until this position clears. I transferred more money into the account so I can go short another contract when that clears but I can't go long because it would cancel out my short -- you can't be short and long a position in the same account.
This is really trying to learn swing trading for futures (or forex), where the dollars are quite large.
I took advantage of the peak to go short some EURO and am in the money on it and will just hold it. I set a stop at my entry so I can't lose money on the trade, and I want to just watch it play out over time.
I had several opportunities to get out but I've consistently seen that every position I've had in the futures ended up being a winner if I was patient. It might take several days but so far its been consistent, and this is sort of the test for that.
Scalping for a half point and all is great, but I see the bigger moves and want to be able to take advantage of them, and they require that I get comfortable with something that moves against me for a while. There is a lot of pain right now ($1000 down) but the futures have had a huge move in a short time and it will have to correct -- it always has.
What I'm going through internally is when do I thrown in the towel and say I missed it. I went short at the wrong time and the charts showed me that but I didn't use that as an entry rule. I have also gone short at the top of a move only to see it go another 20 points higher, after the elections, but at least in that case I was in the right position.
The bad part about holding this position is that I'm locked out of futures trading until this position clears. I transferred more money into the account so I can go short another contract when that clears but I can't go long because it would cancel out my short -- you can't be short and long a position in the same account.
This is really trying to learn swing trading for futures (or forex), where the dollars are quite large.
I took advantage of the peak to go short some EURO and am in the money on it and will just hold it. I set a stop at my entry so I can't lose money on the trade, and I want to just watch it play out over time.
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