Tuesday, November 30, 2010

3 for 4 today in the futures

I made 4 trades this morning, one was a 1/4 point loss (that would have turned positive if I had waited) and 3 winners. Gross of $87. I'm done for the day because I need to get back to my day work. Why not double, triple, quadruple the size and do this full time? That's the goal, but it takes time to build confidence. I could easily multiply these results by 20 but that's too much too fast. I have to build confidence with days, weeks, months of success and slow, incremental increase in trading size.

One of the charts I'm using is the 2 minute chart of the SPY, and it contains a very useful 'tell', in that there seems to be a correlation between short term highs and lows and volume spikes. They aren't large spikes but there is more volume around the ends of small moves. This is a good confirmation signal, as the chart here shows.



I was also more relaxed today when things were moving against me in the shorter term, although it still produces some alertness. The truth is that I'm not setting hard stops here because its so easy for the trade to meander for a while.

Overall I think the market is headed down in the near term, I'm mostly in cash in my swing account, so short is a direction I can rest in, even though 3 out of the 4 trades were long today. Short term there can be strong movement in any direction.

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